Talk:Mainpage

Elimination calculations

Sea Devils are eliminated. They can reach 5 wins at most, and since Rhine Fire has yet to play the Raiders (both 5-4), there will be at least one more team with 6 wins and out of rerach for Hamburg. => Hamburg cannot finish higher than 7th place.

Hi, We currently only have a very rudimentary system for calculating eliminations. Unfortunately, this is not so easy in wikis due to their structure and possibilities.

Our elimination logic in the module checks two main conditions:

• Mathematical elimination: can a team not reach the current last playoff position even if it wins all remaining games?

• No remaining games: Has a team already reached the maximum number of games and not qualified?

It seems that “mathematical elimination” is not yet aggressive enough or that certain scenarios (such as head-to-head results) are not included comprehensively enough in the playoff position prediction to recognize early eliminations.

I'll see if that can be fixed. Krypt (talk) 10:26, 21 July 2025 (CEST)

Understanding Multi-Team Tie-Breakers (and Hamburg's Playoff Status)

Here's the key difference I guess:

• When 3 or more teams are tied in wins, and not all of them have played each other head-to-head, the Head-to-Head (H2H) tie-breaker is skipped. (similar to NFL rules)

• Instead, the system moves directly to the next set of criteria: Strength of Victory (SOV) and Strength of Schedule (SOS).

• This is why Hamburg isn't eliminated in the simulation, even with a 2-7 record (simulated to 5-7):

• If Hamburg wins all its remaining games, they finish 5-7.

• Several other teams (like Rhein Fire, Raiders, Paris, Panthers, Prague), if they lose out, would also finish 5-7.

• Because Hamburg hasn't played all of these potential 5-7 tie-partners, the H2H tie-breaker is skipped for this group.

• Our system then defaults to SOV and SOS.

Hamburg's current SOV (0.444) and SOS (0.642) are relatively high compared to many of these other 5-7 teams. Since the module uses these static (not dynamically re-calculated in this simulation) SOV/SOS values, Hamburg appears to win the tie-breaker and thus maintains a "theoretical" playoff path in the simulation.

So, it's not a real bug, but rather how the ELF's specific tie-breaker rules (skipping H2H for multi-team ties where not all have played) interact with the module's simplified SOV/SOS calculation in a simulated "best-case" scenario.

Or at least that's my understanding :D

Krypt (talk) 11:11, 21 July 2025 (CEST)

Hamburg Status

Hi Krypt,

The point is that Rhein Fire and the Raiders cannot lose out both, since they play each other in Week 13. And one of them will win that game and get an additional win, even if all 5-4 teams lose every other game. The scenario of Hamburg tying all the other teams presently at 5-4 is mathematically impossible, because one of these teams is guaranteed another win (we just don't know which team it is). The tiebreakers do not matter at all.

You're right. Working on it - it's a very complex task as we only can use lua to caluclate all this things Krypt (talk) 10:46, 22 July 2025 (CEST)